Iowa Wild at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Iowa Wild

2:6

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

IARFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 3.33.8
High danger: 711
Chances: 1315
Shots: 2931

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal31

13Scoring chances15

7High-danger chances11

3.31Expected goals3.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	4–4	2–3	1.0–0.9
2nd	16–11	7–5	5–3	2.0–1.4
3rd	3–12	2–6	0–5	0.3–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 25
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.82
GSAx: -2.18

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.32
GSAx: +1.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:25Penalty
1st 6:43Penalty
1st 6:43Penalty
1st 9:13Penalty
1st 12:57Penalty
1st 18:43Penalty
2nd 3:21Mike Hardman (0–1)low · 31 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 4:10Penalty
2nd 4:16Penalty
2nd 5:02Boris Katchouk (0–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 7:49Penalty
2nd 11:59Penalty
2nd 13:01Penalty
2nd 15:07Nic Petan (1–2)high · rebound · 20 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 16:39Penalty
2nd 19:11Caedan Bankier (2–2)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 7:03Colton Dach (2–3)high · 9 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 8:39Penalty
3rd 9:32Penalty
3rd 9:32David Gust (2–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 16:05Boris Katchouk (2–5)empty net · medium · 19 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 18:11Penalty
3rd 19:48Jackson Cates (2–6)empty net · low · 136 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt