Henderson Silver Knights at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

3:1

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

HSKSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 3.42.1
High danger: 42
Chances: 105
Shots: 3527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal27

10Scoring chances5

4High-danger chances2

3.38Expected goals2.12

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–6	4–0	1–0	1.5–0.3
2nd	8–13	3–4	2–2	0.8–1.4
3rd	12–8	3–1	1–0	1.1–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.39
GSAx: +0.39

Isaiah Saville

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.12
GSAx: +1.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 19:57Penalty
2nd 2:25Penalty
2nd 5:00Penalty
2nd 7:33Penalty
2nd 7:33Penalty
2nd 9:25Mason Morelli (1–0)high · 21 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
2nd 11:21Penalty
3rd 0:25Brayden Tracey (1–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
3rd 7:02Penalty
3rd 8:59Penalty
3rd 8:59Jonas Røndbjerg (2–1)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 19:54Mason Morelli (3–1)empty net · low · 58 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek