Calgary Wranglers at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Calgary Wranglers

2:5

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

CGYSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 2.62.2
High danger: 54
Chances: 119
Shots: 2922

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal22

11Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances4

2.61Expected goals2.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–12	1–4	0–2	0.3–1.1
2nd	10–6	4–2	4–1	1.1–0.5
3rd	13–4	6–3	1–1	1.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	2	12:36 of the 3rd	7:24	7:24	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: +0.61

Connor Murphy

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 17
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: -2.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:31Penalty
1st 7:32Penalty
1st 8:39Penalty
1st 10:39Brady Lyle (1–0)5v4 · low · 62 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 12:29Ethan Cardwell (1–1)high · 12 ft · beat Connor Murphy
1st 13:07Penalty
1st 15:57Penalty
1st 16:39Penalty
1st 17:32Danil Gushchin (1–2)5v4 · medium · 38 ft · beat Connor Murphy
1st 19:13Penalty
2nd 0:24Penalty
2nd 1:07Penalty
2nd 1:51Penalty
2nd 9:08Penalty
2nd 10:37Penalty
2nd 14:57Penalty
2nd 15:52Scott Sabourin (1–3)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 8:39Ben Jones (2–3)grade A · 10 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 12:07Penalty
3rd 12:07Penalty
3rd 12:36Nathan Todd (2–4)medium · 19 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 19:39Cole Cassels (2–5)empty net · high · 14 ft · beat Connor Murphy