Abbotsford Canucks at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Abbotsford Canucks

6:2

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ABBTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 3.01.9
High danger: 82
Chances: 138
Shots: 2321

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal21

13Scoring chances8

8High-danger chances2

2.97Expected goals1.88

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–6	4–2	4–1	1.0–0.5
2nd	7–8	4–3	1–0	0.7–0.6
3rd	8–7	5–3	3–1	1.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	12:58 of the 3rd	7:02	7:02	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 17
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.75
GSAx: -2.25

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.88
GSAx: -0.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:46Linus Karlsson (1–0)high · 6 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 7:41Penalty
1st 10:19Cole McWard (2–0)low · 55 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 13:50Nate Smith (2–1)medium · 6 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 18:24Penalty
2nd 2:31John Leonard (2–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 17:09Linus Karlsson (3–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 19:39Penalty
3rd 12:58Aidan McDonough (4–2)low · 40 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 13:13John Stevens (5–2)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 15:43Penalty
3rd 15:43Penalty
3rd 16:55Sheldon Dries (6–2)empty net · high · 15 ft