Bakersfield Condors at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Bakersfield Condors

2:5

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

BAKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 3.23.5
High danger: 66
Chances: 1515
Shots: 2737

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal37

15Scoring chances15

6High-danger chances6

3.18Expected goals3.47

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	7–4	3–2	1.3–0.9
2nd	10–17	4–6	2–4	1.1–1.6
3rd	7–11	4–5	1–0	0.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack LaFontaine

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.18
GSAx: +1.18

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: -1.94

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 15
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.41
GSAx: +0.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:37Logan Morrison (0–1)low · 28 ft · beat Jack Campbell
1st 11:53Dino Kambeitz (1–1)high · 21 ft · beat Jack LaFontaine
2nd 1:09Tucker Robertson (1–2)low · 33 ft · beat Jack Campbell
2nd 8:21Max McCormick (1–3)low · 52 ft · beat Jack Campbell
2nd 11:09Peetro Seppala (1–4)low · 53 ft · beat Jack Campbell
2nd 15:38Ryan Winterton (1–5)high · 16 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 16:01Raphael Lavoie (2–5)grade A · 10 ft · beat Jack LaFontaine
2nd 19:59Penalty
3rd 12:17Penalty