Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals

4:6

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 3.33.9
High danger: 56
Chances: 1113
Shots: 3536

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal36

11Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances6

3.33Expected goals3.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–10	8–3	5–1	2.0–0.8
2nd	8–12	1–6	0–2	0.5–1.3
3rd	12–14	2–4	0–3	0.8–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	6:47	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 30
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.94
GSAx: -2.06

Oskari Salminen

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.33
GSAx: -0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:35Jeffrey Viel (0–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
1st 6:36Penalty
1st 6:36Penalty
1st 8:26Penalty
1st 11:20Penalty
1st 12:27Penalty
1st 14:08Egor Afanasyev (1–1)5v4 · low · 42 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
2nd 14:05Marc Del Gaizo (2–1)low · 45 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
2nd 16:11Penalty
2nd 17:09Egor Afanasyev (3–1)4v5 · low · 31 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
2nd 17:46Penalty
2nd 17:46Kyle Capobianco (3–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 18:14Penalty
3rd 2:21Kristian Reichel (3–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 7:49Brad Lambert (3–4)low · 32 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 8:35Penalty
3rd 8:35Penalty
3rd 11:42Parker Ford (3–5)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 15:51Joakim Kemell (4–5)low · 25 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
3rd 18:22Penalty
3rd 19:05Penalty
3rd 19:53Jeffrey Viel (4–6)empty net · low · 126 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov