Syracuse Crunch at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Syracuse Crunch

4:1

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

SYRPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.12.6
High danger: 55
Chances: 813
Shots: 2723

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal23

8Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances5

2.14Expected goals2.61

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	2–5	1–2	0.7–1.1
2nd	11–6	5–4	3–3	1.1–0.8
3rd	8–8	1–4	1–0	0.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: -1.86

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: +1.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:57Penalty
1st 9:39Penalty
1st 11:12Fabian Lysell (0–1)5v4 · low · 42 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 14:06Penalty
1st 16:41Penalty
1st 16:46Penalty
2nd 3:29Penalty
2nd 6:52Penalty
2nd 10:40Gabriel Dumont (1–1)low · 47 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 12:23Penalty
2nd 13:29Cole Koepke (2–1)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 15:22Penalty
2nd 15:22Penalty
3rd 6:06Felix Robert (3–1)high · 7 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 7:26Penalty
3rd 9:35Penalty
3rd 17:33Gabriel Dumont (4–1)empty net · low · 42 ft · beat Brandon Bussi