AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, December 19

Grand Rapids Griffins at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Grand Rapids Griffins
3:4
Final / OT
Texas Stars

The sheet

GRTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
3.83.4
High danger
104
Chances
1711
Shots
2930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal30
17Scoring chances11
10High-danger chances4
3.75Expected goals3.35

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–44–14–11.2–0.5
2nd5–164–72–10.7–1.5
3rd14–99–24–11.8–0.7
OT0–10–10–10.0–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX116:56 of the 3rd3:041:27+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
3.35
GSAx
-0.65
Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
29
Saves
26
Allowed
3
xGA
3.75
GSAx
+0.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:06Jonatan Berggren (1–0)low · 28 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 1st 16:50Penalty
  • 2nd 6:25Penalty
  • 2nd 7:30Mavrik Bourque (1–1)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 2nd 9:42Tim Gettinger (2–1)high · 14 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 2nd 13:46Penalty
  • 2nd 17:00Penalty
  • 2nd 17:52Mavrik Bourque (2–2)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 2nd 19:09William Wallinder (3–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 6:23Penalty
  • 3rd 10:32Penalty
  • 3rd 18:23Mavrik Bourque (3–3)low · 45 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • OT 0:39Mavrik Bourque (3–4)grade A · 20 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa