Providence Bruins at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Providence Bruins

3:7

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

PROTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 3.33.2
High danger: 47
Chances: 1715
Shots: 3426

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal26

17Scoring chances15

4High-danger chances7

3.31Expected goals3.20

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–2	7–2	1–1	1.4–0.4
2nd	9–15	7–9	2–4	1.2–1.8
3rd	8–9	3–4	1–2	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.31
GSAx: +0.31

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 19
Allowed: 7
xGA: 3.20
GSAx: -3.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:09Zach Solow (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 1:48Penalty
1st 1:48Penalty
1st 4:15Penalty
1st 6:37Georgii Merkulov (1–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 0:38Jesper Boqvist (2–1)low · 62 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 8:18Kieffer Bellows (2–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 8:41Penalty
2nd 18:45Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 0:14Topi Niemelä (2–3)medium · 35 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 2:02Justin Brazeau (3–3)high · rebound · 21 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 7:04Penalty
3rd 7:04Penalty
3rd 7:38Logan Shaw (3–4)low · 40 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 8:50Max Lajoie (3–5)low · 45 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 15:53Kieffer Bellows (3–6)empty net · low · 53 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 18:06Penalty
3rd 18:06Penalty
3rd 18:06Penalty
3rd 18:06Penalty
3rd 18:06Penalty
3rd 19:42Josiah Slavin (3–7)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Brandon Bussi