AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 20

Cleveland Monsters at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Cleveland Monsters
5:3
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

CLEROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
36%64%
xG
2.63.3
High danger
36
Chances
911
Shots
3138

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal38
9Scoring chances11
3High-danger chances6
2.58Expected goals3.29

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–105–32–11.3–0.7
2nd5–183–50–30.5–1.7
3rd10–101–31–20.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jet Greaves
Shots faced
38
Saves
35
Allowed
3
xGA
3.29
GSAx
+0.29
Dustin Tokarski
Shots faced
31
Saves
26
Allowed
5
xGA
2.58
GSAx
-2.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:20Brandon Biro (0–1)medium · 30 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • 1st 7:19Penalty
  • 1st 8:14Trey Fix-Wolansky (1–1)5v4 · medium · 10 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 1st 16:18Penalty
  • 1st 17:27Jake Christiansen (2–1)5v4 · low · 55 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 2nd 4:04Brendan Warren (2–2)high · 8 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • 3rd 0:29Penalty
  • 3rd 0:29Penalty
  • 3rd 0:29Penalty
  • 3rd 0:55Penalty
  • 3rd 0:55Lukáš Rousek (2–3)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • 3rd 5:57Carson Meyer (3–3)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 8:20Penalty
  • 3rd 10:18Luca Del Bel Belluz (4–3)5v4 · low · 46 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 10:43Penalty
  • 3rd 18:33Cole Clayton (5–3)empty net · low · 166 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski