AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 20

Iowa Wild at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Iowa Wild
4:7
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

IAMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
54%46%
xG
3.73.0
High danger
65
Chances
1413
Shots
4029

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal29
14Scoring chances13
6High-danger chances5
3.66Expected goals3.05

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st20–139–72–32.1–1.4
2nd12–94–43–11.0–1.0
3rd8–71–21–10.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−50:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA50:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Troy Grosenick
Shots faced
40
Saves
36
Allowed
4
xGA
3.66
GSAx
-0.34
Jesper Wallstedt
Shots faced
22
Saves
16
Allowed
6
xGA
2.43
GSAx
-3.57
Zane McIntyre
Shots faced
7
Saves
6
Allowed
1
xGA
0.62
GSAx
-0.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:17Penalty
  • 1st 3:46Joakim Kemell (0–1)5v4 · medium · 45 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 1st 7:44Joakim Kemell (0–2)high · 12 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 1st 10:29Penalty
  • 1st 12:52Penalty
  • 1st 13:34Roland McKeown (0–3)4v5 · high · 8 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 1st 17:47Adam Wilsby (0–4)low · 47 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 1st 18:56Penalty
  • 2nd 5:10Anthony Angello (0–5)medium · 7 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 8:25Mark Jankowski (0–6)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 14:32Penalty
  • 2nd 14:32Penalty
  • 2nd 14:32Penalty
  • 2nd 14:32Penalty
  • 2nd 14:32Penalty
  • 2nd 14:37Penalty
  • 2nd 19:40Penalty
  • 2nd 19:58Penalty
  • 2nd 19:58Penalty
  • 2nd 19:58Penalty
  • 2nd 19:58Nic Petan (1–6)5v4 · high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 3rd 1:06Nic Petan (2–6)5v4 · high · 26 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 3rd 7:47Penalty
  • 3rd 10:03Nic Petan (3–6)low · 36 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 3rd 15:29Spencer Stastney (3–7)low · 65 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 3rd 16:21Joel Teasdale (4–7)low · 46 ft · beat Troy Grosenick