Grand Rapids Griffins at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:6

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

GRTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 3.44.1
High danger: 37
Chances: 1318
Shots: 3738

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal38

13Scoring chances18

3High-danger chances7

3.44Expected goals4.14

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–13	5–6	1–3	1.1–1.3
2nd	9–11	2–2	0–0	0.6–0.7
3rd	17–14	6–10	2–4	1.7–2.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	3	11:30 of the 3rd	8:30	8:30	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 32
Allowed: 6
xGA: 4.14
GSAx: -1.86

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.44
GSAx: +1.44

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:14Nolan Stevens (1–0)medium · 30 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 2:56Penalty
1st 7:13Penalty
1st 7:31Mavrik Bourque (1–1)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 9:34Penalty
1st 14:31Artem Grushnikov (1–2)low · 55 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 14:47Penalty
3rd 7:28Ben Berard (1–3)low · 34 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 11:17Penalty
3rd 11:30Scott Reedy (1–4)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 13:10Carter Mazur (2–4)high · 9 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 15:13Penalty
3rd 17:55Penalty
3rd 17:55Penalty
3rd 17:55Penalty
3rd 17:55Penalty
3rd 17:55Penalty
3rd 17:55Fredrik Karlström (2–5)empty net · medium · 33 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 18:03Nicholas Caamano (2–6)high · 20 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 18:53Penalty