AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 20

Tucson Roadrunners at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Tucson Roadrunners
8:6
Final
San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

TUCSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
71%29%
xG
4.73.3
High danger
124
Chances
1814
Shots
3835

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SJ above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal35
18Scoring chances14
12High-danger chances4
4.70Expected goals3.33

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st17–106–35–11.8–0.9
2nd14–149–65–11.9–1.1
3rd7–113–52–21.0–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ213:04 of the 3rd6:566:34+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Eetu Makiniemi
Shots faced
38
Saves
30
Allowed
8
xGA
4.70
GSAx
-3.30
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
35
Saves
29
Allowed
6
xGA
3.33
GSAx
-2.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:04Bradley Marek (0–1)low · 65 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 5:11Aku Räty (1–1)low · 17 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 1st 6:12Penalty
  • 1st 7:09Shakir Mukhamadullin (1–2)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 10:16Lleyton Moore (2–2)low · 66 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 1st 16:00Penalty
  • 2nd 2:29Penalty
  • 2nd 2:29Penalty
  • 2nd 2:29Penalty
  • 2nd 8:36Bradley Marek (2–3)medium · 24 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 8:54Ben McCartney (3–3)high · 18 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 2nd 9:39Penalty
  • 2nd 9:53Aku Räty (4–3)5v4 · medium · 10 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 2nd 15:32Aku Räty (5–3)low · 39 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 3rd 1:51Thomas Bordeleau (5–4)medium · 32 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 3:18Austin Poganski (6–4)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 3rd 8:38Penalty
  • 3rd 9:53Scott Sabourin (6–5)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 13:04Milos Kelemen (7–5)medium · 24 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 3rd 16:34Leon Gawanke (7–6)low · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 19:40Penalty
  • 3rd 19:44Victor Söderström (8–6)5v4 · low · 62 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi