Coachella Valley Firebirds at Henderson Silver Knights

The Dollar Loan Center · Henderson, NV

Coachella Valley Firebirds

1:5

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

CVHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 2.33.6
High danger: 19
Chances: 814
Shots: 3230

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal30

8Scoring chances14

1High-danger chances9

2.35Expected goals3.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	2–2	0–1	0.6–0.8
2nd	11–9	3–3	1–2	1.1–0.8
3rd	10–13	3–9	0–6	0.7–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	3	9:13 of the 3rd	10:47	10:47	+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael Bullion

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: +1.35

Cale Morris

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: -2.03

Jack LaFontaine

Shots faced: 4
Saves: 4
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.67
GSAx: +0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:53Penalty
1st 13:55Penalty
1st 16:08Dysin Mayo (0–1)low · backhand · 9 ft · beat Cale Morris
1st 19:13Penalty
2nd 4:49Jakub Demek (0–2)low · snap · 35 ft · beat Cale Morris
2nd 6:39Penalty
2nd 6:39Penalty
2nd 17:23Penalty
2nd 18:15Connor Carrick (1–2)5v4 · grade A · slap · rebound · 7 ft · beat Michael Bullion
3rd 3:35Penalty
3rd 7:51Penalty
3rd 8:10Sheldon Rempal (1–3)5v4 · medium · snap · 31 ft · beat Cale Morris
3rd 9:13Mason Morelli (1–4)grade A · wrist · rebound · 8 ft · beat Cale Morris
3rd 11:24Penalty
3rd 11:24Penalty
3rd 11:24Penalty
3rd 17:45Penalty
3rd 17:45Penalty
3rd 18:06Penalty
3rd 19:09Tyler Benson (1–5)5v4 · high · snap · 16 ft · beat Cale Morris