Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

5:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

WBSBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 2.62.4
High danger: 23
Chances: 109
Shots: 3225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal25

10Scoring chances9

2High-danger chances3

2.63Expected goals2.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–10	3–3	0–2	0.9–1.0
2nd	7–11	3–4	1–1	0.7–1.1
3rd	13–4	4–2	1–0	1.1–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: -2.37

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: +1.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:31Penalty
1st 3:33Jonathan Gruden (1–0)low · 26 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 7:14Penalty
1st 18:09Colin White (2–0)low · 36 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 1:41Penalty
2nd 1:45Penalty
2nd 2:50Maxence Guenette (2–1)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 4:52Penalty
2nd 5:27Rem Pitlick (3–1)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 7:20Penalty
2nd 7:50Sam Poulin (4–1)5v4 · medium · 46 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 10:33Penalty
2nd 14:07Penalty
3rd 3:02Penalty
3rd 6:32Sam Poulin (5–1)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 8:47Penalty
3rd 18:32Penalty