AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 22

Providence Bruins at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Providence Bruins
6:3
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

PROROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
37%63%
xG
2.02.8
High danger
24
Chances
89
Shots
2329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal29
8Scoring chances9
2High-danger chances4
1.99Expected goals2.80

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–103–30–20.6–1.3
2nd10–111–31–20.6–1.0
3rd7–84–31–00.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC39:21 of the 3rd10:399:13+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
29
Saves
26
Allowed
3
xGA
2.80
GSAx
-0.20
Devin Cooley
Shots faced
23
Saves
17
Allowed
6
xGA
1.99
GSAx
-4.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:53Trevor Kuntar (1–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 1st 11:48Penalty
  • 1st 14:30Penalty
  • 1st 16:49Filip Cederqvist (1–1)low · 29 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 6:01Brett Murray (1–2)medium · 7 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 10:44Georgii Merkulov (2–2)low · 41 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 2nd 12:00Penalty
  • 2nd 14:38Penalty
  • 2nd 14:38Penalty
  • 2nd 15:29Anthony Richard (3–2)low · 33 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 2nd 19:54Penalty
  • 3rd 1:06Jesper Boqvist (4–2)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 3rd 5:39Penalty
  • 3rd 5:39Penalty
  • 3rd 9:21Georgii Merkulov (5–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 3rd 10:42Linus Weissbach (5–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 17:56Anthony Richard (6–3)empty net · medium · 21 ft · beat Devin Cooley