Manitoba Moose at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Manitoba Moose

1:3

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MBIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 2.82.8
High danger: 54
Chances: 911
Shots: 2829

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal29

9Scoring chances11

5High-danger chances4

2.83Expected goals2.80

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	5–3	3–1	1.2–1.0
2nd	8–11	2–6	2–3	0.8–1.3
3rd	11–6	2–2	0–0	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: -0.20

Zane McIntyre

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: +1.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 18:00Penalty
1st 18:08Nikita Chibrikov (1–0)5v4 · grade A · 4 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
1st 18:56Penalty
2nd 2:18Maxim Cajkovic (1–1)low · 34 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 5:37Penalty
2nd 14:28Steven Fogarty (1–2)high · 13 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 18:59Penalty
2nd 18:59Penalty
2nd 18:59Penalty
2nd 19:55Nic Petan (1–3)5v4 · high · 30 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 5:47Penalty
3rd 19:50Penalty
3rd 19:50Penalty
3rd 19:50Penalty
3rd 19:50Penalty
3rd 19:50Penalty
3rd 19:50Penalty
3rd 19:50Penalty