Manitoba Moose at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Manitoba Moose

5:2

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MBIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 3.02.7
High danger: 63
Chances: 1511
Shots: 2626

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal26

15Scoring chances11

6High-danger chances3

3.04Expected goals2.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	2–2	1–2	0.5–1.0
2nd	9–8	7–4	2–1	1.4–0.8
3rd	9–9	6–5	3–0	1.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	3	0:38 of the 3rd	19:22	19:22	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: +0.70

Zane McIntyre

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.04
GSAx: -1.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 5:22Penalty
2nd 7:30Parker Ford (1–0)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
2nd 8:14Penalty
2nd 13:30Penalty
2nd 14:00Kyle Capobianco (2–0)4v5 · medium · 25 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
2nd 16:54Penalty
3rd 0:38Parker Ford (3–0)low · 37 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
3rd 9:48Penalty
3rd 10:52Brad Lambert (4–0)5v4 · high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
3rd 14:06Penalty
3rd 15:05Nic Petan (4–1)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 15:53Penalty
3rd 16:04Kristian Reichel (5–1)empty net · high · 15 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
3rd 18:50Penalty
3rd 19:54Sammy Walker (5–2)5v4 · medium · 10 ft · beat Collin Delia