AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 23

Bridgeport Islanders at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Bridgeport Islanders
3:4
Final / OT
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

BRISPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
13%87%
xG
2.46.2
High danger
312
Chances
1018
Shots
2740

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0246P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal40
10Scoring chances18
3High-danger chances12
2.36Expected goals6.24

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–103–30–20.7–1.1
2nd12–82–40–10.7–0.7
3rd6–205–93–70.9–3.6
OT0–20–20–20.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR30:00 of the 3rd20:006:50+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Skarek
Shots faced
40
Saves
36
Allowed
4
xGA
6.24
GSAx
+2.24
Malcolm Subban
Shots faced
27
Saves
24
Allowed
3
xGA
2.36
GSAx
-0.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:55Penalty
  • 1st 11:47Penalty
  • 1st 12:39Penalty
  • 1st 14:52Otto Koivula (1–0)medium · 6 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 1:10Penalty
  • 2nd 12:26Jeff Kubiak (2–0)medium · 14 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 17:01Vincent Sévigny (3–0)low · 59 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 17:31Penalty
  • 3rd 0:19Adam Gaudette (3–1)grade A · rebound · 21 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 2:46Penalty
  • 3rd 10:47Penalty
  • 3rd 15:45Dylan Coghlan (3–2)low · 57 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 19:50Matthew Peca (3–3)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • OT 1:52Penalty
  • OT 2:14Penalty
  • OT 2:14Penalty
  • OT 2:14Penalty
  • OT 2:14Penalty
  • OT 2:14Jakub Vrana (3–4)5v4 · grade A · 41 ft · beat Jakub Skarek