AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 23

Tucson Roadrunners at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Tucson Roadrunners
4:3
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

TUCSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
82%18%
xG
4.42.0
High danger
43
Chances
186
Shots
4527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

45Shots on goal27
18Scoring chances6
4High-danger chances3
4.41Expected goals1.98

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st15–95–10–11.2–0.5
2nd17–57–12–01.8–0.3
3rd13–136–42–21.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SD−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SD212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Alex Stalock
Shots faced
45
Saves
41
Allowed
4
xGA
4.41
GSAx
+0.41
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
27
Saves
24
Allowed
3
xGA
1.98
GSAx
-1.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:57Jan Jeník (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Alex Stalock
  • 1st 4:57Brayden Tracey (1–1)low · 44 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 8:16Penalty
  • 1st 17:09Penalty
  • 2nd 8:08Jan Jeník (2–1)low · 56 ft · beat Alex Stalock
  • 2nd 9:08Penalty
  • 2nd 12:05Penalty
  • 2nd 12:05Penalty
  • 2nd 13:16Penalty
  • 2nd 19:53Penalty
  • 3rd 0:18Penalty
  • 3rd 2:44Penalty
  • 3rd 7:58Aku Räty (3–1)low · 41 ft · beat Alex Stalock
  • 3rd 9:28Penalty
  • 3rd 17:50Glenn Gawdin (3–2)low · 38 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 18:18John Leonard (4–2)empty net · high · 20 ft · beat Alex Stalock
  • 3rd 19:07Penalty
  • 3rd 19:30Andrew Agozzino (4–3)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 19:55Penalty