San Jose Barracuda at Henderson Silver Knights

The Dollar Loan Center · Henderson, NV

San Jose Barracuda

2:3

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

SJHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 1.22.2
High danger: 22
Chances: 37
Shots: 1732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal32

3Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances2

1.17Expected goals2.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	1–0	1–0	0.5–0.5
2nd	4–10	1–4	0–1	0.3–1.0
3rd	7–12	1–3	1–1	0.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: -0.75

Jordan Papirny

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 15
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.17
GSAx: -0.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:04Ethan Cardwell (1–0)low · wrist · 39 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
1st 12:35Bradley Marek (2–0)high · snap · 170 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
1st 19:03Mason Morelli (2–1)low · snap · 33 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 0:40Penalty
2nd 1:35Penalty
2nd 2:05Penalty
2nd 7:10Penalty
2nd 8:55Penalty
2nd 12:12Tyler Benson (2–2)high · tip · 11 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 4:43Penalty
3rd 6:33Penalty
3rd 7:32Penalty
3rd 16:29Gage Quinney (2–3)high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 19:15Penalty