Belleville Senators at Toronto Marlies

Scotiabank Arena · Toronto, ON

Belleville Senators

4:2

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

BELTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 1.42.6
High danger: 15
Chances: 49
Shots: 2331

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal31

4Scoring chances9

1High-danger chances5

1.37Expected goals2.58

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	1–0	0–0	0.5–0.6
2nd	5–10	1–5	0–2	0.3–1.0
3rd	9–11	2–4	1–3	0.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kevin Mandolese

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.58
GSAx: +0.58

Luke Cavallin

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.37
GSAx: -2.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:27Kieffer Bellows (0–1)low · 36 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
1st 11:35Penalty
1st 14:45Matthew Highmore (1–1)medium · rebound · 44 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
2nd 1:22Zack Ostapchuk (2–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
2nd 9:00Penalty
2nd 13:06Penalty
3rd 2:07Joseph Blandisi (2–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
3rd 3:59Penalty
3rd 7:09Penalty
3rd 8:49Zack Ostapchuk (3–2)5v4 · medium · 13 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
3rd 19:17Roby Järventie (4–2)empty net · low · 46 ft · beat Luke Cavallin