Providence Bruins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Providence Bruins

5:4

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

PROBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 2.13.7
High danger: 26
Chances: 813
Shots: 2537

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal37

8Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances6

2.11Expected goals3.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	2–1	1–1	0.7–0.8
2nd	8–14	2–6	0–2	0.6–1.3
3rd	9–13	4–6	1–3	0.8–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 33
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.69
GSAx: -0.31

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 17
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.75
GSAx: -3.25

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 3
Saves: 3
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.36
GSAx: +0.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:44Penalty
1st 14:52Georgii Merkulov (1–0)low · 15 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 18:03Brian Pinho (1–1)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 6:22Karson Kuhlman (1–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 9:45Michael Callahan (2–2)low · 40 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 9:53Penalty
2nd 11:39Penalty
2nd 13:20Anthony Richard (3–2)5v4 · low · 38 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 13:46Dennis Cholowski (3–3)medium · rebound · 14 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 1:01Michael Callahan (4–3)low · 57 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 9:35Penalty
3rd 10:15Anthony Richard (5–3)4v5 · high · 21 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 18:38Robin Salo (5–4)high · 9 ft · beat Brandon Bussi