AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 27

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
1:4
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

WBSHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
14%86%
xG
1.72.8
High danger
05
Chances
611
Shots
2137

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal37
6Scoring chances11
0High-danger chances5
1.65Expected goals2.76

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–72–20–10.3–0.5
2nd7–161–40–20.5–1.2
3rd9–143–50–20.8–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

WBS−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
WBS30:00 of the 3rd20:0019:40+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
37
Saves
33
Allowed
4
xGA
2.76
GSAx
-1.24
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
21
Saves
20
Allowed
1
xGA
1.65
GSAx
+0.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:49Penalty
  • 1st 17:39Alex Limoges (0–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 12:18Ethen Frank (0–2)high · 173 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 13:05Penalty
  • 2nd 13:05Penalty
  • 2nd 13:05Penalty
  • 2nd 13:05Penalty
  • 2nd 13:05Penalty
  • 2nd 13:05Penalty
  • 2nd 13:30Penalty
  • 2nd 13:51Joe Snively (0–3)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 2:30Penalty
  • 3rd 11:48Austin Rueschhoff (1–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 15:56Pierrick Dubé (1–4)empty net · low · 68 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg