Toronto Marlies at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse · Cleveland, OH

Toronto Marlies

2:3

Final

Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

TORCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.93.6
High danger: 57
Chances: 1114
Shots: 2633

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLE above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal33

11Scoring chances14

5High-danger chances7

2.93Expected goals3.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	4–6	2–3	0.9–1.5
2nd	9–13	6–5	3–2	1.5–1.3
3rd	8–9	1–3	0–2	0.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	4:00	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.63
GSAx: +0.63

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.93
GSAx: +0.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:33Penalty
1st 13:54Penalty
1st 17:45Corson Ceulemans (0–1)low · 28 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 19:58Penalty
1st 19:58Penalty
2nd 1:01Joseph Blandisi (1–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Jet Greaves
2nd 1:39Trey Fix-Wolansky (1–2)low · 31 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 2:37Penalty
2nd 12:34Penalty
2nd 14:21Penalty
3rd 2:16Owen Sillinger (1–3)high · tip · 11 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 11:01Penalty
3rd 13:04Ryan Tverberg (2–3)low · 8 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 14:49Penalty