AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 27

Utica Comets at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Utica Comets
4:5
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

UTCLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
37%63%
xG
2.53.2
High danger
47
Chances
816
Shots
3026

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal26
8Scoring chances16
4High-danger chances7
2.50Expected goals3.15

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–104–53–11.0–0.9
2nd15–133–91–51.3–1.9
3rd3–31–20–10.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

UTC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
UTC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Felix Sandström
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
2.50
GSAx
-1.50
Jeremy Brodeur
Shots faced
23
Saves
20
Allowed
3
xGA
2.80
GSAx
-0.20
Isaac Poulter
Shots faced
3
Saves
1
Allowed
2
xGA
0.35
GSAx
-1.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:11Max Willman (1–0)high · 26 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 1st 1:37Garrett Wilson (1–1)medium · rebound · 33 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
  • 1st 2:46Wade Allison (1–2)high · 13 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
  • 1st 4:57Alexis Gendron (1–3)medium · 30 ft · beat Jeremy Brodeur
  • 1st 13:26Penalty
  • 2nd 0:27Jacob Gaucher (1–4)low · 28 ft · beat Jeremy Brodeur
  • 2nd 2:11Cooper Marody (1–5)high · 9 ft · beat Jeremy Brodeur
  • 2nd 8:29Penalty
  • 2nd 11:50Graeme Clarke (2–5)low · 15 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 2nd 12:32Penalty
  • 2nd 13:47Justin Dowling (3–5)5v4 · low · 23 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 2nd 13:57Penalty
  • 2nd 18:23Max Willman (4–5)low · 42 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 2nd 19:18Penalty
  • 3rd 4:28Penalty