Hartford Wolf Pack at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hartford Wolf Pack

1:3

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 2.83.4
High danger: 42
Chances: 1016
Shots: 2733

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances16

4High-danger chances2

2.79Expected goals3.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–11	3–5	0–0	0.5–1.0
2nd	10–13	3–9	3–2	1.2–1.7
3rd	13–9	4–2	1–0	1.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.34
GSAx: +1.34

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: +1.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:42Turner Elson (1–0)medium · 24 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 13:14Penalty
2nd 2:25Jakub Vrana (1–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 2:40Penalty
2nd 10:24Penalty
2nd 14:30Penalty
3rd 5:58Mikhail Abramov (1–2)low · 36 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 6:55Penalty
3rd 19:36Matthew Peca (1–3)empty net · low · 58 ft