Chicago Wolves at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Chicago Wolves

4:7

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

CHIMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

10%90%

xG: 1.73.1
High danger: 05
Chances: 411
Shots: 3138

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal38

4Scoring chances11

0High-danger chances5

1.67Expected goals3.14

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–16	1–4	0–2	0.5–1.4
2nd	10–10	3–3	0–2	0.8–0.8
3rd	10–12	0–4	0–1	0.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	2	13:56 of the 3rd	6:04	6:04	+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Keith Kinkaid

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 31
Allowed: 7
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: -3.86

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.67
GSAx: -2.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:16Penalty
1st 3:16Penalty
1st 3:16Penalty
1st 3:16Penalty
1st 5:38Fedor Svechkov (0–1)medium · 31 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 8:25Mark Jankowski (0–2)grade A · rebound · 36 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 10:45Cal O’Reilly (0–3)high · 24 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 11:38Penalty
1st 11:38Penalty
1st 11:38Penalty
1st 11:38Penalty
1st 15:31Penalty
1st 15:41Chris Terry (1–3)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
2nd 2:02Griffin Mendel (2–3)low · 56 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
2nd 8:42Mitchell Vande Sompel (3–3)low · 32 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
2nd 15:21Rocco Grimaldi (4–3)low · 26 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
2nd 19:05Denis Gurianov (4–4)high · 15 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
3rd 4:00Kevin Wall (4–5)medium · 18 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
3rd 5:44Penalty
3rd 12:40Penalty
3rd 13:56Denis Gurianov (4–6)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
3rd 18:34Mark Jankowski (4–7)empty net · low · 108 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid