Henderson Silver Knights at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

1:3

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

HSKBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 1.92.2
High danger: 14
Chances: 47
Shots: 3034

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal34

4Scoring chances7

1High-danger chances4

1.86Expected goals2.20

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–9	1–3	0–2	0.9–0.8
2nd	6–17	1–1	1–0	0.3–0.7
3rd	11–8	2–3	0–2	0.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	2	12:51 of the 3rd	7:09	3:35	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaiah Saville

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.20
GSAx: -0.80

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.86
GSAx: +0.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 16:51Drake Caggiula (0–1)high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
1st 17:02Penalty
3rd 12:51Jayden Grubbe (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
3rd 13:22Jakub Demek (1–2)low · 59 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 18:48Drake Caggiula (1–3)empty net · low · 33 ft · beat Isaiah Saville