San Diego Gulls at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

San Diego Gulls

1:3

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

SDCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 2.04.3
High danger: 37
Chances: 815
Shots: 2144

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal44

8Scoring chances15

3High-danger chances7

2.02Expected goals4.26

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–16	3–8	0–4	0.6–1.7
2nd	6–15	2–5	0–3	0.6–1.7
3rd	8–13	3–2	3–0	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	5:52 of the 3rd	14:08	14:08	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 41
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.26
GSAx: +1.26

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.02
GSAx: +1.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:53Penalty
1st 3:48Penalty
1st 5:48Shane Wright (0–1)5v4 · medium · 7 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
1st 11:07Penalty
1st 19:13Penalty
2nd 17:29Marian Studenic (0–2)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 5:52Ryan Winterton (0–3)medium · 25 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 10:33Penalty
3rd 11:57Penalty
3rd 18:49Chase De Leo (1–3)high · 14 ft · beat Aleš Stezka