Charlotte Checkers at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Charlotte Checkers

1:4

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

CLTWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 2.42.2
High danger: 37
Chances: 88
Shots: 3116

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal16

8Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances7

2.36Expected goals2.21

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–4	2–1	2–1	0.8–0.6
2nd	10–6	4–4	1–4	0.9–0.9
3rd	10–6	2–3	0–2	0.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.36
GSAx: +1.36

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 12
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.21
GSAx: -1.79

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:24Will Butcher (0–1)low · wrist · 31 ft · beat Spencer Knight
1st 11:28Penalty
2nd 0:59Alex Nylander (0–2)high · snap · 23 ft · beat Spencer Knight
2nd 4:42Penalty
2nd 11:56Penalty
2nd 11:56Penalty
2nd 13:59Penalty
2nd 14:50Penalty
2nd 15:56Penalty
2nd 17:22Penalty
2nd 18:08Colin White (0–3)5v4 · high · tip · 17 ft · beat Spencer Knight
3rd 2:36Penalty
3rd 5:05Penalty
3rd 6:31Penalty
3rd 6:31Penalty
3rd 8:40Penalty
3rd 8:40Penalty
3rd 11:14Penalty
3rd 13:40Lucas Carlsson (1–3)medium · snap · 14 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 19:48Matt Filipe (1–4)empty net · low · 52 ft · beat Spencer Knight