AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 29

Bridgeport Islanders at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Bridgeport Islanders
6:5
Final / OT
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

BRISPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
41%59%
xG
3.74.2
High danger
1012
Chances
1817
Shots
3134

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal34
18Scoring chances17
10High-danger chances12
3.68Expected goals4.19

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–87–42–21.4–0.9
2nd13–79–37–11.9–0.7
3rd4–161–91–80.2–2.0
OT1–31–10–10.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR30:00 of the 3rd20:002:06+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen
Shots faced
34
Saves
29
Allowed
5
xGA
4.19
GSAx
-0.81
Malcolm Subban
Shots faced
31
Saves
25
Allowed
6
xGA
3.68
GSAx
-2.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:05Penalty
  • 1st 3:38Will Bitten (0–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 1st 4:52Grant Hutton (1–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 1st 9:04Penalty
  • 1st 9:04Penalty
  • 1st 9:04Penalty
  • 2nd 1:51Penalty
  • 2nd 3:00William Dufour (2–1)5v4 · high · 27 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 4:56Penalty
  • 2nd 4:56Penalty
  • 2nd 6:03Dennis Cholowski (3–1)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 7:52Cole Bardreau (4–1)high · 7 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 8:12Nathan Walker (4–2)high · 10 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 16:04William Dufour (5–2)high · 15 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 0:18Penalty
  • 3rd 0:18Penalty
  • 3rd 2:06Ryan Suzuki (5–3)high · 12 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 3rd 5:16Penalty
  • 3rd 6:04Will Bitten (5–4)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 3rd 9:20Penalty
  • 3rd 9:37Nathan Walker (5–5)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 3rd 15:55Penalty
  • OT 1:38Ruslan Iskhakov (6–5)medium · 8 ft · beat Malcolm Subban