Texas Stars at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Texas Stars

6:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

TEXMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 4.24.4
High danger: 107
Chances: 1721
Shots: 3642

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal42

17Scoring chances21

10High-danger chances7

4.24Expected goals4.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–12	5–4	4–1	1.3–0.9
2nd	18–15	8–6	3–2	1.9–1.5
3rd	7–15	4–11	3–4	1.1–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 40
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.42
GSAx: +2.42

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 30
Allowed: 6
xGA: 4.24
GSAx: -1.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:10Nicholas Caamano (1–0)high · 13 ft · beat Collin Delia
1st 6:07Jeff Malott (1–1)high · 8 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 16:27Fredrik Karlström (2–1)high · 19 ft · beat Collin Delia
1st 19:56Fredrik Karlström (3–1)high · 16 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 9:00Ashton Sautner (3–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 11:17Matěj Blümel (4–2)medium · 25 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 16:00Alex Petrovic (5–2)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 18:51Penalty
3rd 6:33Penalty
3rd 10:37Fredrik Karlström (6–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 11:19Penalty