Coachella Valley Firebirds at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Coachella Valley Firebirds

1:3

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CVTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 3.62.8
High danger: 36
Chances: 1711
Shots: 3727

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal27

17Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances6

3.61Expected goals2.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–11	5–7	0–4	1.0–1.6
2nd	3–10	0–2	0–1	0.1–0.7
3rd	22–6	12–2	3–1	2.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 36
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.61
GSAx: +2.61

Cale Morris

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: +0.87

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 4
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.97
GSAx: -1.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:16Penalty
1st 3:58Dylan Guenther (0–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 4:30Milos Kelemen (0–2)medium · 31 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 4:44John Leonard (0–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Cale Morris
1st 6:32Connor Carrick (1–3)low · 33 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 11:17Penalty
1st 16:38Penalty
2nd 16:05Penalty
2nd 16:05Penalty
2nd 16:05Penalty
2nd 16:56Penalty
3rd 0:58Penalty
3rd 12:58Penalty
3rd 15:14Penalty