AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 29

San Jose Barracuda at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

San Jose Barracuda
5:4
Final / SO
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

SJBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
41%59%
xG
2.43.5
High danger
54
Chances
813
Shots
2837

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal37
8Scoring chances13
5High-danger chances4
2.43Expected goals3.54

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–142–61–10.5–1.3
2nd9–114–32–21.1–1.3
3rd10–112–42–10.8–1.0
OT0–10–00–00.0–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ116:56 of the 3rd3:041:40+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Eetu Makiniemi
Shots faced
37
Saves
33
Allowed
4
xGA
3.54
GSAx
-0.46
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
28
Saves
24
Allowed
4
xGA
2.43
GSAx
-1.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:42Penalty
  • 1st 3:00Penalty
  • 1st 4:57Alex Peters (0–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 59 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 1st 6:50Leon Gawanke (1–1)low · slap · 61 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 11:00Penalty
  • 1st 11:00Penalty
  • 1st 11:00Penalty
  • 1st 15:48Penalty
  • 1st 15:48Penalty
  • 1st 19:10Penalty
  • 2nd 8:33Ty Tullio (1–2)grade A · wrist · rebound · 6 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 2nd 8:47Penalty
  • 2nd 9:19Lane Pederson (1–3)5v4 · high · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 2nd 13:51Penalty
  • 2nd 16:45Penalty
  • 3rd 2:28Danil Gushchin (2–3)low · wrist · 42 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 5:03Scott Sabourin (3–3)grade A · wrist · rebound · 17 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 8:13Penalty
  • 3rd 9:12Penalty
  • 3rd 9:29Raphael Lavoie (3–4)5v4 · medium · wrist · 38 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 3rd 18:36Cole Cassels (4–4)high · wrist · 28 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • OT 2:28Penalty