Rockford IceHogs at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Rockford IceHogs

4:5

Final / SO

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

RFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 3.73.9
High danger: 67
Chances: 1613
Shots: 4437

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

44Shots on goal37

16Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances7

3.70Expected goals3.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	20–11	8–5	4–3	1.8–1.2
2nd	15–12	4–6	1–4	1.1–1.7
3rd	7–9	4–0	1–0	0.7–0.5
OT	2–5	0–2	0–0	0.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	1:28	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 40
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.70
GSAx: -0.30

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 33
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.86
GSAx: -0.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:35Michal Teplý (1–0)high · 22 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
1st 10:55Jasper Weatherby (1–1)high · 6 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 12:31Penalty
2nd 15:07Penalty
2nd 16:03Marc Del Gaizo (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 17:28Jasper Weatherby (1–3)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 19:44Denis Gurianov (1–4)high · 9 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 1:28Nolan Allan (2–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
3rd 8:35Antti Saarela (3–4)medium · 22 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
3rd 13:15Penalty
3rd 14:21Penalty
3rd 15:50Logan Nijhoff (4–4)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
3rd 16:09Penalty
OT 1:01Penalty
OT 4:49Penalty