AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 30

Colorado Eagles at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Colorado Eagles
6:2
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

COLIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
75%25%
xG
5.33.6
High danger
138
Chances
1813
Shots
5432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

54Shots on goal32
18Scoring chances13
13High-danger chances8
5.33Expected goals3.56

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st18–124–53–31.5–1.4
2nd19–97–24–01.9–0.8
3rd17–117–66–52.0–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA35:49 of the 3rd14:1114:11+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Jones
Shots faced
54
Saves
48
Allowed
6
xGA
5.33
GSAx
-0.67
Justus Annunen
Shots faced
32
Saves
30
Allowed
2
xGA
3.56
GSAx
+1.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:45Penalty
  • 1st 5:54Penalty
  • 1st 6:02Brad Hunt (1–0)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Hunter Jones
  • 1st 14:39Penalty
  • 2nd 2:19Penalty
  • 2nd 5:37Penalty
  • 2nd 8:02Carson Lambos (1–1)low · 36 ft · beat Justus Annunen
  • 2nd 9:43Spencer Smallman (2–1)high · rebound · 19 ft · beat Hunter Jones
  • 2nd 10:57Ivan Ivan (3–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Hunter Jones
  • 2nd 11:42Penalty
  • 2nd 12:19Nic Petan (3–2)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Justus Annunen
  • 3rd 1:19Penalty
  • 3rd 1:19Spencer Smallman (4–2)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Hunter Jones
  • 3rd 3:34Penalty
  • 3rd 3:34Penalty
  • 3rd 5:39Penalty
  • 3rd 5:49Cal Burke (5–2)5v4 · high · tip · 14 ft · beat Hunter Jones
  • 3rd 6:49Penalty
  • 3rd 6:49Penalty
  • 3rd 6:49Penalty
  • 3rd 6:49Penalty
  • 3rd 6:49Penalty
  • 3rd 12:02Cal Burke (6–2)high · 15 ft · beat Hunter Jones
  • 3rd 16:26Penalty
  • 3rd 16:26Penalty