AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 30

Rochester Americans at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Rochester Americans
3:2
Final / SO
Utica Comets

The sheet

ROCUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
61%39%
xG
3.22.9
High danger
53
Chances
1013
Shots
3230

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
UTC above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal30
10Scoring chances13
5High-danger chances3
3.19Expected goals2.91

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–83–51–11.1–0.9
2nd9–143–51–10.8–1.3
3rd10–64–33–11.2–0.6
OT2–20–00–00.2–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC116:56 of the 3rd3:040:36+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid
Shots faced
32
Saves
30
Allowed
2
xGA
3.19
GSAx
+1.19
Dustin Tokarski
Shots faced
30
Saves
28
Allowed
2
xGA
2.91
GSAx
+0.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:48Penalty
  • 1st 5:48Kyle Criscuolo (0–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 1st 9:34Penalty
  • 1st 11:01Penalty
  • 1st 13:08Penalty
  • 1st 18:17Penalty
  • 3rd 1:38Tyson Jost (1–1)high · 9 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 3rd 4:59Penalty
  • 3rd 11:00Penalty
  • 3rd 11:14Xavier Parent (1–2)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 14:42Penalty
  • 3rd 17:32Michael Mersch (2–2)high · 18 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 3rd 18:40Penalty