AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 30

Providence Bruins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Providence Bruins
8:2
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

PROSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
88%12%
xG
5.42.0
High danger
154
Chances
2411
Shots
3417

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0246P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal17
24Scoring chances11
15High-danger chances4
5.44Expected goals1.97

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–58–35–01.8–0.6
2nd14–89–57–32.4–1.0
3rd7–47–33–11.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
23
Saves
18
Allowed
5
xGA
3.51
GSAx
-1.49
Brandon Bussi
Shots faced
17
Saves
15
Allowed
2
xGA
1.97
GSAx
-0.03
Malcolm Subban
Shots faced
11
Saves
8
Allowed
3
xGA
1.93
GSAx
-1.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:44Anthony Richard (1–0)medium · 25 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 4:44Ethan Ritchie (2–0)medium · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 9:55Penalty
  • 1st 16:35Penalty
  • 1st 19:25Penalty
  • 2nd 6:21Justin Brazeau (3–0)high · 21 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 6:39Jakub Vrana (3–1)medium · 30 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 7:55Penalty
  • 2nd 8:40Jesper Boqvist (4–1)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 9:34Penalty
  • 2nd 11:31John Farinacci (5–1)5v4 · grade A · 8 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 13:52Penalty
  • 2nd 13:52Penalty
  • 2nd 13:52Penalty
  • 2nd 13:52Penalty
  • 2nd 15:11Trevor Kuntar (6–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 18:31Penalty
  • 2nd 19:27Will Bitten (6–2)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 7:17Patrick Brown (7–2)high · 18 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 9:41Penalty
  • 3rd 17:36Penalty
  • 3rd 18:00Jayson Megna (8–2)4v5 · medium · 28 ft · beat Malcolm Subban