San Diego Gulls at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Diego Gulls

2:3

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SDTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 1.53.2
High danger: 37
Chances: 513
Shots: 1631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal31

5Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances7

1.53Expected goals3.19

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	3–5	2–2	0.8–1.0
2nd	4–16	0–5	0–2	0.3–1.4
3rd	4–8	2–3	1–3	0.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Alex Stalock

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.19
GSAx: +0.19

Dylan Wells

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 14
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.53
GSAx: -0.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:11Penalty
1st 10:31Judd Caulfield (1–0)high · 13 ft · beat Dylan Wells
1st 15:13Penalty
1st 17:00Josh Lopina (2–0)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Dylan Wells
2nd 2:29Penalty
2nd 6:36Penalty
2nd 7:55Penalty
2nd 10:48Penalty
2nd 12:44Penalty
2nd 14:02Dylan Guenther (2–1)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Alex Stalock
2nd 19:34Aku Räty (2–2)low · 56 ft · beat Alex Stalock
3rd 1:29Penalty
3rd 3:13John Leonard (2–3)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Alex Stalock
3rd 7:58Penalty
3rd 16:09Penalty
3rd 16:09Penalty
3rd 19:41Penalty