AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 30

Ontario Reign at Henderson Silver Knights

The Dollar Loan Center · Henderson, NV

Ontario Reign
7:1
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ONTHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
51%49%
xG
2.52.9
High danger
43
Chances
1111
Shots
2641

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal41
11Scoring chances11
4High-danger chances3
2.45Expected goals2.94

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–215–81–21.0–1.8
2nd8–154–21–10.7–0.7
3rd9–52–12–00.8–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jacob Ingham
Shots faced
41
Saves
40
Allowed
1
xGA
2.94
GSAx
+1.94
Jesper Vikman
Shots faced
17
Saves
15
Allowed
2
xGA
1.42
GSAx
-0.58
Isaiah Saville
Shots faced
9
Saves
4
Allowed
5
xGA
1.03
GSAx
-3.97

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:29Tyler Madden (1–0)medium · tip · 8 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
  • 1st 7:41Akil Thomas (2–0)grade A · wrist · rebound · 8 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
  • 1st 10:05Charles Hudon (3–0)medium · slap · 19 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
  • 1st 10:30Penalty
  • 1st 14:21Mason Morelli (3–1)medium · wrist · 13 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 1st 15:30Wyatte Wylie (4–1)low · wrist · 65 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
  • 1st 18:58Brandt Clarke (5–1)medium · wrist · 12 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
  • 2nd 17:40Penalty
  • 2nd 17:40Penalty
  • 2nd 18:52Penalty
  • 3rd 7:03Penalty
  • 3rd 9:50Penalty
  • 3rd 9:50Penalty
  • 3rd 13:53Martin Chromiak (6–1)high · wrist · 10 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 3rd 18:08Francesco Pinelli (7–1)low · wrist · 32 ft · beat Jesper Vikman