AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, December 31

Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals
3:4
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
55%45%
xG
2.22.2
High danger
33
Chances
99
Shots
2526

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal26
9Scoring chances9
3High-danger chances3
2.23Expected goals2.23

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–61–10–10.3–0.6
2nd8–123–42–10.8–0.9
3rd12–85–41–11.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Gustavs Davis Grigals
Shots faced
26
Saves
22
Allowed
4
xGA
2.23
GSAx
-1.77
Mitchell Weeks
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.23
GSAx
-0.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:52Penalty
  • 1st 5:15Penalty
  • 1st 5:20Brett Seney (0–1)5v4 · grade A · 26 ft · beat Gustavs Davis Grigals
  • 1st 19:03Penalty
  • 2nd 1:44Anthony Angello (1–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 2nd 3:21Penalty
  • 2nd 11:46Ethan Del Mastro (1–2)low · 60 ft · beat Gustavs Davis Grigals
  • 2nd 11:54Penalty
  • 2nd 13:15Penalty
  • 2nd 15:35Marc Del Gaizo (2–2)grade A · 12 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 2nd 16:47Penalty
  • 2nd 18:34Ryder Rolston (2–3)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Gustavs Davis Grigals
  • 3rd 6:05Penalty
  • 3rd 12:09Penalty
  • 3rd 12:09Penalty
  • 3rd 12:09Penalty
  • 3rd 12:48Penalty
  • 3rd 12:48Penalty
  • 3rd 12:48Penalty
  • 3rd 14:40Denis Gurianov (3–3)low · 56 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 3rd 14:58David Gust (3–4)low · 47 ft · beat Gustavs Davis Grigals
  • 3rd 16:22Penalty