Charlotte Checkers at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Charlotte Checkers

5:2

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

CLTLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 3.63.2
High danger: 27
Chances: 1711
Shots: 3431

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal31

17Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances7

3.55Expected goals3.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–8	8–2	0–1	1.5–0.7
2nd	10–14	5–5	1–3	1.2–1.5
3rd	9–9	4–4	1–3	0.9–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Felix Sandström

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 29
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.55
GSAx: -1.45

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.16
GSAx: +1.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:36Zac Dalpe (1–0)medium · 24 ft · beat Felix Sandström
1st 6:32Penalty
1st 10:59Penalty
1st 17:00Brendan Perlini (2–0)medium · 13 ft · beat Felix Sandström
1st 18:39Penalty
1st 18:39Penalty
1st 19:09Penalty
1st 19:50Lucas Carlsson (3–0)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Felix Sandström
2nd 1:52Zac Dalpe (4–0)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Felix Sandström
2nd 4:06Penalty
2nd 6:34Penalty
2nd 7:54Louie Belpedio (4–1)4v5 · low · 40 ft · beat Spencer Knight
2nd 12:05Jacob Gaucher (4–2)low · 29 ft · beat Spencer Knight
2nd 15:38Penalty
2nd 15:38Penalty
2nd 15:38Penalty
2nd 18:04Penalty
3rd 7:11Penalty
3rd 10:08Penalty
3rd 10:08Penalty
3rd 10:08Penalty
3rd 11:43Penalty
3rd 18:44Mackie Samoskevich (5–2)empty net · medium · 27 ft · beat Felix Sandström