AHLDashboard
‹ Monday, January 1

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Coachella Valley Firebirds
6:1
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

CVCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
55%45%
xG
5.33.7
High danger
1111
Chances
2015
Shots
4030

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal30
20Scoring chances15
11High-danger chances11
5.25Expected goals3.65

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–123–61–30.8–1.2
2nd16–159–75–62.3–2.0
3rd18–38–25–22.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Wolf
Shots faced
40
Saves
34
Allowed
6
xGA
5.25
GSAx
-0.75
Aleš Stezka
Shots faced
30
Saves
29
Allowed
1
xGA
3.65
GSAx
+2.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:09John Hayden (1–0)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 1st 5:43Yan Kuznetsov (1–1)low · slap · 70 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 1st 12:40Penalty
  • 1st 18:16Penalty
  • 2nd 3:41Penalty
  • 2nd 3:57Kole Lind (2–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 28 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 2nd 5:21Penalty
  • 2nd 5:21Penalty
  • 2nd 5:37Penalty
  • 2nd 6:33Jacob Melanson (3–1)5v4 · high · snap · 8 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 2nd 11:02John Hayden (4–1)high · tip · rebound · 11 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 2nd 17:15Penalty
  • 3rd 1:27Andrew Poturalski (5–1)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 3rd 7:36Penalty
  • 3rd 10:46Penalty
  • 3rd 12:57Ryan Winterton (6–1)high · 5 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 3rd 19:29Penalty
  • 3rd 19:29Penalty
  • 3rd 19:29Penalty