Texas Stars at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Texas Stars

2:3

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

TEXCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 2.22.6
High danger: 43
Chances: 79
Shots: 2635

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal35

7Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances3

2.21Expected goals2.61

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–14	3–4	1–2	0.7–1.2
2nd	7–10	3–1	2–0	0.8–0.8
3rd	15–11	1–4	1–1	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: -0.39

Keith Kinkaid

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.21
GSAx: +0.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:20Nicholas Caamano (1–0)grade A · 12 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 11:53Penalty
2nd 1:12Max Comtois (1–1)low · 18 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 1:46Penalty
2nd 12:14Matthew Seminoff (2–1)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
2nd 13:39Matt Donovan (2–2)low · 11 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 16:51Penalty
3rd 0:39Penalty
3rd 11:27Rocco Grimaldi (2–3)medium · 24 ft · beat Rémi Poirier