Cleveland Monsters at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Cleveland Monsters

2:1

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

CLETORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 2.22.4
High danger: 25
Chances: 88
Shots: 2830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal30

8Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances5

2.24Expected goals2.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–11	4–1	0–1	0.6–0.7
2nd	11–16	0–7	0–4	0.5–1.6
3rd	12–3	4–0	2–0	1.2–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: +1.43

Keith Petruzzelli

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: +0.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:50Penalty
1st 12:39Penalty
1st 15:25Penalty
1st 17:53Penalty
2nd 3:08Penalty
2nd 5:02Dylan Gambrell (0–1)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Jet Greaves
2nd 8:17Carson Meyer (1–1)low · 27 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
2nd 10:06Penalty
2nd 16:17Penalty
3rd 3:15Jake Gaudet (2–1)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
3rd 12:51Penalty
3rd 12:51Penalty
3rd 12:51Penalty
3rd 12:51Penalty
3rd 12:51Penalty
3rd 14:19Penalty