AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, January 3

Abbotsford Canucks at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Abbotsford Canucks
5:6
Final / SO
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ABBBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
74%26%
xG
4.43.0
High danger
114
Chances
1712
Shots
3231

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal31
17Scoring chances12
11High-danger chances4
4.39Expected goals3.04

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–73–11–01.0–0.3
2nd16–811–38–12.6–0.6
3rd5–122–61–20.5–1.5
OT2–41–21–10.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−3−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK32:01 of the 3rd17:5911:06+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
32
Saves
27
Allowed
5
xGA
4.39
GSAx
-0.61
Artūrs Šilovs
Shots faced
31
Saves
26
Allowed
5
xGA
3.04
GSAx
-1.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:32Aatu Räty (1–0)grade A · rebound · 30 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 18:27Penalty
  • 2nd 1:47Penalty
  • 2nd 5:06Penalty
  • 2nd 7:28Penalty
  • 2nd 8:04Lane Pederson (1–1)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • 2nd 9:04Greg McKegg (1–2)low · 30 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • 2nd 12:45Tristen Nielsen (2–2)high · 16 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 13:56Ty Glover (3–2)high · 25 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 15:32Arshdeep Bains (4–2)low · 18 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 15:42Penalty
  • 2nd 17:35Penalty
  • 3rd 2:01Dmitri Zlodeev (5–2)medium · 27 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 5:01Penalty
  • 3rd 5:49Penalty
  • 3rd 6:20Ben Gleason (5–3)low · 17 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • 3rd 16:22Matvey Petrov (5–4)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • 3rd 19:29Lane Pederson (5–5)grade A · 19 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs