AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, January 3

Tucson Roadrunners at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Tucson Roadrunners
4:6
Final
San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

TUCSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
27%73%
xG
3.25.1
High danger
513
Chances
1224
Shots
3538

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SJ above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal38
12Scoring chances24
5High-danger chances13
3.23Expected goals5.10

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–144–94–41.4–1.9
2nd9–153–91–50.7–1.8
3rd16–95–60–41.1–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC117:18 of the 3rd2:422:42+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
38
Saves
32
Allowed
6
xGA
5.10
GSAx
-0.90
Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
35
Saves
31
Allowed
4
xGA
3.23
GSAx
-0.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:10Danil Gushchin (0–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 5:08Penalty
  • 1st 7:30Penalty
  • 1st 12:18Nathan Todd (0–2)medium · 7 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 16:20Penalty
  • 1st 17:44Austin Poganski (1–2)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 1st 19:11Cole Cassels (1–3)high · 8 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 19:23Josh Doan (2–3)high · 9 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 1st 19:48Penalty
  • 2nd 8:16Penalty
  • 2nd 18:15Cameron Crotty (3–3)low · 54 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 19:24Penalty
  • 3rd 1:00Scott Sabourin (3–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 9:20Victor Söderström (4–4)low · 52 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 15:26Penalty
  • 3rd 17:18Danil Gushchin (4–5)5v4 · high · rebound · 43 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 19:17Artem Guryev (4–6)empty net · low · 99 ft · beat Matthew Villalta