Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

2:1

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

WBSSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 2.33.1
High danger: 53
Chances: 1010
Shots: 2736

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal36

10Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances3

2.34Expected goals3.12

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	3–4	1–1	0.8–0.9
2nd	9–12	5–4	4–2	1.1–1.3
3rd	7–13	2–2	0–0	0.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 35
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.12
GSAx: +2.12

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: +0.34

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:05Vinnie Hinostroza (1–0)medium · 20 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 19:00Penalty
2nd 7:18Penalty
2nd 9:27Peter Abbandonato (2–0)high · 8 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 0:30Adam Gaudette (2–1)low · 17 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 11:11Penalty
3rd 19:42Penalty