AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 5

Tucson Roadrunners at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Tucson Roadrunners
1:4
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

TUCCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
63%37%
xG
2.62.3
High danger
43
Chances
108
Shots
3215

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal15
10Scoring chances8
4High-danger chances3
2.59Expected goals2.32

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–24–21–01.1–0.3
2nd13–55–13–11.2–0.4
3rd5–81–50–20.3–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Keith Kinkaid
Shots faced
32
Saves
31
Allowed
1
xGA
2.59
GSAx
+1.59
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
15
Saves
11
Allowed
4
xGA
2.32
GSAx
-1.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:15Isaac Ratcliffe (0–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 10:58Penalty
  • 1st 13:28Penalty
  • 2nd 0:56Jan Jeník (1–1)high · 12 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
  • 2nd 1:20Penalty
  • 2nd 7:49Penalty
  • 2nd 7:49Penalty
  • 2nd 11:19Penalty
  • 2nd 11:46Cory Conacher (1–2)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 12:26Penalty
  • 2nd 15:36Penalty
  • 2nd 19:05Penalty
  • 3rd 3:27Max Comtois (1–3)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 4:42Penalty
  • 3rd 12:45Penalty
  • 3rd 12:45Penalty
  • 3rd 13:47Chris Terry (1–4)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta